The EU is on track to deliver on its Kyoto Protocol commitments for reducing or limiting emissions of greenhouse gases, the Commission's annual progress report on emissions shows. The latest projections indicate that the EU-15 will meet its 8% reduction target under Kyoto; 10 of the 12 remaining Member States of the EU have also individual commitments under the protocol. It is projected that they will reduce their emissions to 6 or 8% below base year levels. This will be achieved through a combination of policies and measures already taken, the purchase of emission credits from projects in third countries, the acquisition of allowances and credits by participants in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), and forestry activities that absorb carbon from the atmosphere. As announced in May, EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2007 - the latest year for which full data are available – were 5.0% lower than base year levels. This contrasted with economic growth of around 44% over the same period. For the EU-27 as a whole, emissions fell by 12.5% between the base year and 2007. Additionally, the European Environment Agency estimates that in 2008 emissions from the EU-15 member states fell further, to 6.2% below their levels in the base year . EU-27 emissions are now estimated to be 13.6% lower than the base year level. The Commission's progress report, based on the latest projections by member states, shows that existing policies and measures – those already implemented – are expected to reduce EU-15 emissions to 6.9% below base year levels in the commitment period 2008-2012. Plans by 10 of the EU-15 member states to buy credits from emission-saving projects carried out in third countries under Kyoto’s three market-based mechanisms – international emissions trading, the Clean Development Mechanism and the Joint Implementation instrument - would bring a further reduction of 2.2%.This would take the overall reduction to around 9.0% 3 and thus over-deliver on the EU's Kyoto commitment. Acquisition of allowances and credits by EU ETS operators is expected to deliver a further 1.4% reduction. Planned afforestation and reforestation activities, which create biological 'sinks' that absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, would contribute an additional cut of 1.0%. Additional policies and measures under discussion would, if fully implemented, bring further cuts of up to 1.6%. This would take the overall reduction to around 13.1%, 3 giving a broad safety margin for achieving the 8% reduction target. All ten EU-12 member states that have a Kyoto target are projected to meet or over-achieve their Current uncertainty over the duration and severity of the economic recession, and thus its impact on emissions, could lead to the revision of projections in future once the outlook becomes clearer. Additionally, the projections of some member states may understate future emission reductions as they do not yet take account of the EU climate and energy package adopted earlier this year. Furthermore, the methodology used to estimate the EU ETS effect needs further improvement. Robust and consistent methodologies and assumptions are needed in order to more accurately project the EU ETS effect. GHG emission projections need to be considered in the perspective of the effective reductions already achieved, which amounted to -9% for the EU-27 and -4% for the EU-15 between 1990 and 2007. Therefore, reduction efforts will need to accelerate substantially across the EU in the future if it is to meet its -20% or -30% target by 2020. (EC/2009-11-12)

Bron: EEP Newsletter No. 172 | 02.12.2009